DR Congo-Rwanda ceasefire deal still faces many challenges
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A peace deal between DR Congo and Rwanda sparks hope, but fragile conditions and mineral wealth complicate the road to lasting stability.
DR Congo-Rwanda Ceasefire Deal Faces Uphill Battle Amid Proxy Conflict and Resource Stakes
Ceasefire Signed, But Stability Remains Elusive
A new peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and Rwanda marks a diplomatic step forward in the long-running eastern conflict — but implementation is fraught with challenges. Both governments have pledged to disarm and disengage their alleged proxies, including armed groups like the M23 and the FDLR.
However, with dozens of non-state militias still active in the region, questions remain about who will respect the ceasefire and how enforcement will be achieved.
Fresh Violence Underscores Fragility
Just hours before the deal was signed, a Codeco militia attack on a displaced persons camp in Ituri province left at least 10 people dead. Such incidents highlight how fractured and decentralized the violence in eastern DR Congo has become.
Ensuring that all armed factions observe the ceasefire will require significant coordination, trust-building, and tangible security guarantees for civilians.
A Region Rich in Minerals — and Risk
Eastern DR Congo is one of the most mineral-rich regions on Earth, containing key resources such as cobalt, coltan, and lithium — all crucial for modern technologies like electric vehicles and smartphones.
These resources also fuel conflict economies. Armed groups use access to mines as a source of revenue, complicating peacebuilding. The new ceasefire agreement does not offer a clear strategy for economic alternatives to rebellion or pathways out of armed livelihoods.
Integrating rebels into the under-resourced Congolese military has historically been a short-term fix, often leading to further instability.
US Support Hinges on Strategic Access
The United States, a key mediator in the peace talks, is reportedly motivated by potential access to DR Congo’s mineral wealth. While not publicly confirmed, there is speculation that preferential mining rights may be part of the behind-the-scenes deal-making.
Former President Donald Trump, who has signaled his interest in rare earth elements, has tied US backing of the peace process to American strategic gain. However, this aspect of the agreement remains opaque and is deeply unpopular with many Congolese citizens, who have seen little benefit from decades of mineral extraction.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops?
A major sticking point in the conflict is the presence of Rwandan troops in eastern DR Congo — something Kigali has consistently denied, despite credible evidence of its support for the M23 rebel group.
The US maintains that Rwandan withdrawal is contingent on the dismantling of the Hutu-led FDLR militia, which Rwanda accuses DR Congo of backing. Rwanda sees the FDLR as a direct threat to its national security.
Whether this conditional withdrawal will occur in practice remains to be seen. But a genuine pullback of Rwandan forces would mark a major diplomatic win for both Kinshasa and Washington.
A Ceasefire With Conditions — and Caution
Ultimately, the peace deal represents a framework, not a finish line. It raises vital hopes for the return of displaced communities, the reduction of violence, and the stabilization of one of Africa’s most volatile regions.
But without guarantees of disarmament by all militias, real economic incentives for peace, and international oversight, the ceasefire risks unraveling before it takes hold.
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