Report: US cuts to foreign aid could cause more than 14 million deaths by 2030

Drastic US Aid Cuts Could Lead to Over 14 Million Deaths by 2030

A devastating forecast warns that more than 14 million additional people could die by 2030 due to dramatic cuts in U.S. foreign aid. The warning comes from a new study published in The Lancet, one of the world’s most respected medical journals.

Trump-Era Cuts Raise Global Alarm

The dire projection follows a decision by former President Donald Trump’s administration to slash U.S. humanitarian aid by 83%. The cutback, announced in early 2025, represents a collapse in U.S. funding for life-saving programs worldwide. According to the researchers behind the study, the consequences will be catastrophic—particularly for children in low- and middle-income countries.

Massive Child Death Toll Anticipated

Of the 14 million projected deaths, over 4.5 million are expected to be children under age five. That amounts to 700,000 additional child deaths per year—a staggering reversal of decades of progress in child health and survival globally. Experts say the loss of aid will undermine access to vaccinations, maternal health services, and treatments for common but deadly illnesses.

20 Years of Progress in Jeopardy

Between 2001 and 2021, U.S. foreign assistance—mostly through USAID-funded programs—was responsible for saving approximately 91 million lives in low- and middle-income countries. The new study, which examined data from 133 countries, shows that the U.S. has long played a critical role in reducing death rates globally.

Death Reduction Success Stories

Researchers found that USAID programs cut overall mortality rates by 15%, and even more impressively, reduced child mortality by 32% in recipient countries. These gains were achieved through targeted investments in public health systems, vaccinations, nutrition, and disease control.

Decline in Preventable Disease Deaths

The most notable progress was seen in the fight against preventable diseases. According to the study, HIV/AIDS-related deaths dropped by 74%, malaria deaths by 53%, and neglected tropical disease deaths by 51% in countries that received significant U.S. aid, compared to those that did not. The researchers emphasize that these programs were central to controlling disease outbreaks and saving millions of lives.

Vulnerable Countries Hit the Hardest

The loss of funding will disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America—many of which rely heavily on U.S. support for healthcare infrastructure. Without these critical investments, experts fear a return to high mortality rates and collapsed health systems in regions already struggling with poverty and instability.

Global Health Experts Sound the Alarm

Health professionals and humanitarian groups are calling the U.S. aid cuts a global crisis in the making. The researchers urge the international community to fill the funding gap, but many acknowledge that the scale of U.S. contributions will be difficult—if not impossible—to replace quickly.

Political Decisions with Human Consequences

Critics argue that the Trump-era cuts reflect a broader trend of nationalist and isolationist policies that overlook the humanitarian responsibilities of powerful nations. The study’s findings suggest that such political choices have real and deadly consequences for millions worldwide.

Reversing the Damage Still Possible

Despite the grim outlook, researchers say the crisis is not irreversible—but only if action is taken soon. Reinstating or replacing U.S. funding could prevent much of the anticipated loss of life. They call on policymakers in Washington and beyond to prioritize humanitarian aid as a matter of global ethics and security.

Aid Is Not Just Charity—It’s Strategy

Beyond morality, the study highlights that foreign aid also plays a role in international stability. Healthier populations are less vulnerable to conflict, migration, and economic collapse. The researchers warn that ignoring global health needs today could result in greater geopolitical challenges tomorrow.

A Call to Reconsider Global Commitments

In conclusion, the authors of the study stress that the U.S. must reconsider its commitment to global health. With lives at stake and decades of progress hanging in the balance, the world is watching to see whether American leadership will rise to meet this urgent challenge—or retreat when it’s needed most.

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