Guinea-Bissau: Embalo Clings to Power Beyond End of Term

Guinea-Bissau is once again facing political turbulence after President Umaro Sissoco Embalo refused to step down despite the official end of his term. His mandate expired at midnight on Thursday, yet instead of handing over power, he declared that he would continue exercising presidential authority until new elections are held. This decision has provoked outrage among the opposition, who describe his actions as an illegal attempt to cling to power.

Elections Scheduled Amid Uncertainty

Embalo has announced that presidential elections will take place on November 23, 2025. Political observers expect him to run for a second term, but doubts linger over whether the polls will proceed smoothly. Many citizens fear that the delayed transition could trigger unrest in a country already burdened with a fragile democratic system. Guinea-Bissau’s history of coups and political deadlock has made its democratic institutions particularly vulnerable.

Constitutional Controversy

According to the country’s constitution, the president is limited to a five-year term with a maximum of two terms. Opposition parties argue that Embalo’s tenure legally ended on February 27, 2025, but a ruling from the nation’s Supreme Court extended his mandate until September 4. Now that the new deadline has passed, the opposition maintains that his continued presence in office is unconstitutional. This dispute has left the nation on the brink of a constitutional crisis.

Opposition Rejects Legitimacy

Over the past months, Guinea-Bissau’s opposition has consistently refused to recognize Embalo as the legitimate president. Leaders from various parties accuse him of undermining democracy and eroding trust in the rule of law. They also argue that delaying elections has worsened political uncertainty, leaving the population with little confidence in the government’s ability to respect democratic norms.

Parliamentary Vacuum Deepens the Crisis

In addition to the presidential dispute, Guinea-Bissau has been without a functioning parliament since 2023, when the previous assembly was dissolved. No elections have been held to replace it, leaving the country without an effective legislative body. This vacuum has heightened fears that governance is increasingly being concentrated in the hands of the presidency, weakening checks and balances.

Regional Concerns and Failed Mediation

The political crisis has drawn the attention of West Africa’s regional bloc, ECOWAS, which dispatched a mission to mediate earlier this year. However, the delegation left abruptly in March after claiming it had received threats of expulsion from President Embalo. This failed mediation has raised alarms that Guinea-Bissau could spiral further into instability without external diplomatic support.

Legacy of Coups and Instability

Guinea-Bissau’s history since gaining independence from Portugal over 50 years ago has been marked by repeated coups, political assassinations, and frequent leadership changes. The nation’s fragile democratic framework has never fully stabilized, leaving citizens weary of the constant cycle of political turmoil. Embalo’s refusal to step down now risks adding another chapter to this turbulent history.

Uncertain Road Ahead

As Guinea-Bissau heads toward the November elections, uncertainty continues to cloud the political landscape. If Embalo follows through with his pledge to remain in office until the vote, tensions between the government and opposition are likely to escalate. Analysts warn that without credible elections and strong mediation efforts, the country could face another destabilizing chapter in its political history.

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