Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of War Preparations Amid Rising Red Sea Tensions

Addis Ababa warns the UN that Eritrea and TPLF hardliners are plotting to destabilize Ethiopia as competition for Red Sea access intensifies.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of preparing for war in coordination with a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The claim was made in a letter from Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, warning that the alliance between Eritrea and the TPLF had become “more evident over the past few months.”

Eritrea Silent as Relations Sour
Eritrea has not yet commented on the accusation, but tensions between the two Horn of Africa neighbors have deepened in recent months. The discord stems from Ethiopia’s renewed campaign to regain access to the Red Sea, a move that has unsettled Eritrea since it gained control of the coastline after independence in 1993.

If Ethiopia’s claims are accurate, Eritrea could be backing armed groups inside Ethiopia to prevent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government from making any military attempts to reclaim Red Sea ports.

A Fragile History of Peace and Conflict
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bloody border war between 1998 and 2000 over the town of Badme, which cost tens of thousands of lives. Relations improved briefly in 2018 when Abiy came to power and signed a peace deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, earning international praise. However, that relationship has since deteriorated, and the issue of Red Sea access has become a major source of friction.

Accusations of a Proxy War

According to the letter, Eritrea and a hardline TPLF faction are “funding, mobilizing, and directing armed groups” in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, where the Fano militias have been fighting federal forces. The letter, quoted by AFP, alleges that both sides are actively preparing to “wage war against Ethiopia.”

While Ethiopia’s foreign ministry has yet to confirm the authenticity of the letter publicly, it is circulating widely on social media among government supporters.

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Tigray Divisions Deepen the Crisis
The TPLF remains divided after the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray conflict. One faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael governs the Tigray region and accuses Abiy’s government of failing to honor the peace terms. Another faction, led by Getachew Reda, is said to be cooperating with Addis Ababa.

The letter claims Eritrea has now aligned with Debretsion’s faction to undermine Ethiopia, a serious charge given that Eritrea previously fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF.

Fano Militias Add to Ethiopia’s Instability
Ethiopia’s Amhara region has become a new epicenter of conflict as the Fano militias once allied with the government have turned against it. The group accuses federal forces of committing abuses and now seeks to topple the government.

According to the Addis Standard, the foreign minister’s letter alleges that Eritrea and TPLF hardliners supported Fano’s September offensive to seize the town of Woldiya. It also claims TPLF commanders participated directly in the operation.

The Red Sea: Ethiopia’s Strategic Obsession
Since losing access to the Red Sea after Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia has relied heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade. In October 2023, Addis Ababa renewed its campaign to secure direct access to the sea, arguing that it made a “strategic mistake” in surrendering control three decades ago.

Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske Selassie recently told parliament that the Red Sea and River Nile were “essential to our country’s existence,” remarks that drew a sharp response from Eritrea’s Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel. He dismissed Ethiopia’s rhetoric as “too crass and pathetic to sell,” accusing the ruling party of a “bizarre obsession.”

Fears of Renewed War in the Horn of Africa
Analysts warn that a new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would devastate an already fragile region struggling with conflict, displacement, and drought. For many in Tigray and Amhara, memories of past wars remain raw. As one Tigrayan resident told the BBC, “No one can handle another war.”

Whether Ethiopia’s allegations are confirmed or not, the mounting hostility between Addis Ababa and Asmara underscores the volatile balance of power in the Horn of Africa and the growing competition over the Red Sea’s strategic and economic importance.

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