Plaid Cymru Shakes Welsh Politics with Historic Byelection Win in Caerphilly
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Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru triumph in the Caerphilly byelection marks a historic shift in Welsh politics, reshaping power and challenging Labour’s stronghold.
Plaid Cymru has pulled off a stunning victory in the Caerphilly byelection, toppling Labour from one of its longest-held strongholds and sparking a political earthquake in Welsh politics with possible ripple effects across Britain.
The Welsh nationalist party, led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, captured the Senedd seat following the sudden death of Labour’s Hefin David, whose passing triggered the vote. Plaid’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, won with 15,961 votes, defeating Reform UK’s Llyr Powell, who secured 12,113 votes. Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailed far behind with just 3,713 votes marking one of the party’s steepest declines in modern Welsh political history.
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Plaid emerged victorious with a majority of 3,848 votes and a remarkable 27% swing away from Labour. The result reflects deep disillusionment among voters with both the UK and Welsh Labour leadership and a growing appetite for political change.
In his acceptance speech, Whittle paid tribute to the late Hefin David, saying, “He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes, but I promise I will walk the same path he did.” Turning to the political establishment, he added, “Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly and we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning.”
Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the victory placed his party in a strong position to challenge for power in next year’s Senedd elections. “There is deep disillusionment with Labour, both on a UK level and in Welsh government,” he said. “The people are looking for new leadership. A Plaid Cymru win here is the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat to lead government next year.”
The result dealt a blow to Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage, who personally visited Caerphilly during the campaign. Reform’s Powell admitted defeat but described the outcome as a learning moment for the party, saying, “We decimated Labour. It’s a massive gain for us here. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems — we’re now a grassroots campaigning party.”
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For Labour, the result is nothing short of devastating. The party has dominated Welsh politics for over a century and still runs the Welsh government, but this defeat threatens its control. With Labour now holding 29 of the 60 Senedd seats, the loss makes passing its 2026–27 budget significantly harder, potentially forcing cuts to public services.
The Welsh first minister and Labour leader, Eluned Morgan, acknowledged voters’ frustrations. “We’ve heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that change in people’s lives has not been quick enough,” she said. “We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will come back stronger.”
Huw Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister, also admitted the party must reflect deeply on the defeat. “Some people are writing us off,” he said. “But, as Mark Twain said, rumours of our death are greatly exaggerated. Labour has lost deep-red seats before and bounced back after listening and rebuilding a better vision.”
He urged Plaid to engage with Labour on passing the upcoming budget, adding, “It is incumbent on all parties in the Senedd to talk to us about how we move forward.”
Immigration had been one of the loudest issues during the campaign, though it remains a matter reserved for Westminster. Reform UK capitalised on the topic, pledging to end what it called the “mass immigration agenda” of both Labour and Plaid. Yet, with only 3% of Caerphilly’s population born outside the UK, analysts suggest that local concerns about health, education, and public services played a far greater role in the result.
Reform’s efforts may also have been undermined by controversy surrounding its former Welsh leader, Nathan Gill, who admitted bribery charges linked to pro-Russian statements in the European parliament.
Polling ahead of next year’s Senedd elections now shows Plaid Cymru narrowly leading with 30%, followed by Reform on 29%, Labor on 14%, and the Conservatives on 11%. Labor’s decline has accelerated since the resignation of former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething amid donations scandal a crisis that Eluned Morgan has struggled to contain.
For Plaid Cymru, the Caerphilly victory is more than just a local triumph; it represents a seismic shift in Wales’s political identity. As Whittle declared on election night, “This is the beginning of a new chapter for Wales one written by the people, for the people.”
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