Arrested Generals and Threats Against VP Intensify Uganda Succession Tensions

Uganda’s military is facing growing uncertainty as senior officers are arrested and political tensions rise over who will eventually succeed President Yoweri Museveni.

Over the past 15 months, at least a dozen generals and senior military officers have been arrested under the authority of Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the country’s army chief and Museveni’s son.

The arrests have raised questions about whether the military is pursuing an anti-corruption campaign or targeting officers believed to oppose Kainerugaba’s possible presidential ambitions.

The 52-year-old general is widely viewed as a potential successor to his father, who has ruled Uganda since 1986. However, reports suggest that his ambitions have encountered resistance within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

This week, Kainerugaba threatened Vice-President Jessica Alupo with dismissal and possible arrest while suggesting that he should take over her position.

The NRM has rejected reports that its senior leadership formally opposed a proposal to support Kainerugaba as the next president, describing the claims as completely false.

Disagreement within the ruling party

Tensions have reportedly emerged between the military, where Kainerugaba exercises considerable influence, and the ruling party, where his political ambitions have become a subject of debate.

A recent meeting of the NRM’s top leadership reportedly ended without agreement on a proposal to position him as Museveni’s successor.

Five party sources who attended the closed-door meeting told AFP that a vote was abandoned after several members spoke against the proposal.

However, Ugandan news website ChimpReports reported that most members who spoke supported Kainerugaba’s potential presidency, although some questioned his readiness for civilian leadership.

NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong Awany confirmed that the party met on 10 November to discuss political, social and economic issues. He dismissed reports that the meeting had rejected a proposal to position Kainerugaba as the next president.

He added that any decisions would be communicated through the appropriate channels and at the appropriate time.

Political scientist Dr Gerald Bareebe, a Ugandan-born academic at Canada’s York University, believes the arrests are connected to political manoeuvring over Museveni’s succession, commonly referred to as the “Muhoozi Project”.

He told the BBC that senior officers believed to oppose the project had been arrested, detained or charged with offences including corruption and treason.

Bareebe said some of the allegations were widely viewed as politically motivated and reflected divisions within the military over the succession question.

Several detained officers have since been released, apparently after Kainerugaba announced that he had forgiven them.

Senior military officers caught in the crackdown

The detention of former deputy army chief Lt Gen Peter Elwelu has brought renewed attention to the arrests.

Elwelu was detained on 2 November over allegations that he had plotted to destabilise the eastern Teso region.

Before his detention, Kainerugaba accused him of treachery in posts on X and announced that he had stripped him of his three-star rank, demoting him to Private. He also claimed that more than 20 soldiers linked to the former commander had been arrested.

The announcement raised legal questions, with Ugandan media reporting that military regulations do not allow a senior officer to be stripped of rank through a social media post.

The army later confirmed Elwelu’s detention, saying security personnel had recovered 15 guns, military uniforms and two pickup trucks linked to him. His family has rejected the allegations.

Elwelu is among at least a dozen generals and senior officers detained since April 2025, according to an investigation by Uganda’s Daily Monitor.

The list includes three former military intelligence chiefs who previously oversaw sensitive security operations.

Maj Gen James Birungi, a former head of defence intelligence and security, was arrested in August 2025 over allegations including treason, terrorism and corruption. He was charged before a military court but later released after Kainerugaba announced that he had forgiven him.

Another former intelligence chief, Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, was detained in September over allegations of providing false intelligence and treachery. He remains in detention, according to the Daily Monitor.

His predecessor, Brig-Gen Charles Bakahumura, was also arrested in September over similar allegations but was later released after the army chief announced that he had forgiven him.

Other military officers have faced accusations ranging from stealing military fuel to accepting money to spy on military communications.

The military has defended the arrests as part of efforts to address corruption and criminal activity within the armed forces.

Security analyst Freddie David Egesa argues that the arrests are linked to investigations involving different security agencies rather than an army-led purge. He says detaining senior officers helps protect witnesses and demonstrates the seriousness of the investigations.

However, Bareebe believes the arrests form part of a wider effort to sideline officers perceived to oppose Kainerugaba’s presidential ambitions.

He points to divisions between the elite Special Forces Command (SFC), which he says is largely loyal to Museveni’s son, and other army commanders who remain unconvinced about his succession.

The allegations against the detained officers are at different stages. Some have been charged, others remain in detention without publicly announced charges, while several have been released.

Bareebe has also questioned whether military trials can guarantee independent proceedings. He alleges that some officers have had charges dropped following private negotiations with Museveni and his son, during which they were pressured to declare support for Kainerugaba.

Government spokesperson Allan Kasujja dismissed claims of a succession-related fallout as “hogwash”.

Threats against the Vice-President

Kainerugaba has frequently used social media to announce arrests, criticise public officials and comment on domestic and international affairs, sometimes triggering diplomatic controversy.

On the night of 9 November, he turned his attention to Vice-President Jessica Alupo, demanding that she prepare to leave her position.

“Whoever is in that office should prepare to hand it over soon,” he wrote in posts that were later deleted.

He also questioned Alupo’s loyalty and threatened her dismissal and possible arrest. Kainerugaba suggested that if he became his father’s deputy, the government would operate on military terms.

The following day, his X account, which had nearly 1.4 million followers, became inaccessible. It was unclear whether he had deactivated it himself, as he had done previously, or whether the platform had suspended it.

Alupo remains in office and has not publicly responded to the threats.

Egesa says Kainerugaba’s controversial posts reflect his preferred communication style, although security analysts are assessing their implications for Uganda’s political and military stability.

Bareebe, however, believes the public confrontation with senior political figures shows how the succession debate is extending beyond the military and into civilian politics.

The military’s role in the succession debate

Kainerugaba was appointed army chief in March 2024 after previously commanding the Special Forces Command, which is responsible for protecting the president and strategic installations.

Under Uganda’s military structure, he reports directly to Museveni, giving him considerable influence over the armed forces.

Bareebe argues that the SFC’s loyalty to the president and his son could become significant in any future transfer of power. He says the regular army has been sidelined by the elite unit, which he describes as functioning like a personal army for Museveni and his son.

The succession debate centres on Museveni, 82, who has governed Uganda since 1986, when his rebel National Resistance Army seized power following a five-year guerrilla war.

He was sworn in for a seventh elected presidential term earlier this year, extending his rule into a fifth decade.

Kainerugaba has indicated that he intends to seek the presidency in 2031, when his father’s current term is due to end. He also leads the Patriotic League of Uganda, a political movement that has mobilised support around his leadership.

However, recent developments suggest that a transfer of power from father to son may face challenges within the ruling party.

During the recent NRM leadership meeting, one official reportedly urged Museveni to retire his son from the military and give him a civilian position to gain administrative experience, AFP reported.

Local media have also reported that some party officials consider Museveni’s younger brother, Gen Salim Saleh, better suited to civilian leadership, although there is no indication that he wants to become president.

Other party members reportedly defended Kainerugaba, pointing to his military leadership, anti-corruption campaign and grassroots political mobilisation.

Bareebe says opposition to the proposed succession has grown among both veteran party figures and younger members, who are concerned about what they see as an attempt to secure power through coercion.

He suggests Museveni’s reluctance to move his son out of the military could reflect the importance of maintaining control over the armed forces during any transition.

Opposition figures also face pressure

The succession debate is unfolding amid continued pressure on Uganda’s political opposition.

Veteran opposition politician Kizza Besigye remains in detention on treason charges, which he denies.

Bobi Wine, who came second to Museveni in this year’s presidential election, has gone into exile in the United States after being threatened by Kainerugaba.

The government has consistently defended its security operations as lawful and necessary to maintain stability.

The family’s military influence has also drawn attention to the possibility of a political dynasty extending across generations. Kainerugaba’s son, Ruhamya, recently graduated from Britain’s Sandhurst military academy.

For now, Museveni remains in power. However, the arrests of senior military officers, Kainerugaba’s threats against the Vice-President and reported divisions within the ruling party have intensified questions about Uganda’s next political transition and the role the president’s family may play in it.