A new scientific analysis has concluded that the record-breaking heatwave sweeping across Europe would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change, as soaring temperatures continue to shatter records and claim lives across the continent.
The report, released by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network, says the ongoing June heatwave is the most severe ever recorded in Europe. Researchers found that global warming has dramatically increased the likelihood and intensity of the extreme temperatures now affecting millions of people.
Scientists say a persistent “heat dome” has trapped hot air over much of Europe, driving temperatures to unprecedented levels. While heat domes are a natural weather phenomenon, researchers stress that climate change has made them significantly hotter and more dangerous.
Several countries have broken long-standing temperature records this week. France recorded its hottest day on record, the UK registered its highest-ever June temperature, Spain experienced its two hottest June days in history, and Switzerland also set a new June temperature record.
Using climate models and historical weather data, researchers compared this year’s heatwave with major European heat events in 1976 and 2003. They concluded that daytime and nighttime temperatures of this magnitude would have been virtually impossible in 1976, before the planet had warmed significantly.
According to the study, Earth has warmed by approximately 1.1°C over the past five decades, greatly increasing the likelihood of extreme heat events. Scientists estimate that an equivalent heatwave occurring in 1976 would have been around 3.5°C cooler than current conditions.
Researchers also highlighted the dangers of unusually warm nights, which prevent the human body from recovering from daytime heat. France recently recorded its hottest night on record, while scientists estimate that today’s extreme nighttime temperatures are around 100 times more likely than they were during Europe’s devastating 2003 heatwave.
The report also examined wet bulb globe temperatures, a measure combining heat, humidity, sunlight and wind to assess heat stress on the human body. Nearly half of 854 cities studied across 30 European countries have either broken or are expected to break their all-time heat stress records during this event.
Scientists warn that higher wet bulb temperatures significantly reduce the body’s ability to cool itself, increasing the risk of heat exhaustion, heatstroke and other potentially fatal conditions.
The heatwave has already had deadly consequences. Spain has reported more than 200 estimated heat-related deaths within four days, while dozens of people have drowned in France after entering water to escape the extreme temperatures.
The scorching conditions have also forced thousands of schools to close, disrupted rail services, triggered power outages and affected tourism across several European countries.
Researchers warn that Europe remains the fastest-warming continent on Earth and caution that unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced, similar heatwaves will become more frequent, longer-lasting and increasingly severe.
Climate experts say the latest findings underscore the growing impact of global warming and the urgent need for action to reduce fossil fuel emissions while improving resilience to extreme weather.
