Al-Qaeda, IS Rivalry Escalates Across Sahel

Rival jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State are engaged in increasingly deadly clashes across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, with Islamic State claiming more than 400 fighters killed in a recent battle.

Fighting reaches unprecedented levels

The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) have intensified their fighting since September, competing for territory, recruitment networks and control of border routes.

On Monday, ISSP claimed it had killed more than 400 JNIM fighters, including several leaders, during clashes four days earlier in Burkina Faso’s Oudalan province, near the borders with Mali and Niger. The reported death toll has not been independently verified.

Conflict analyst Heni Nsaibia of ACLED said that, if confirmed, the figure would make the confrontation the deadliest single battle recorded between the groups. ISSP had previously claimed more than 200 deaths in the same area in early September.

More than 2,200 deaths recorded

Between 2019 and September 2026, the rival groups fought more than 320 battles, resulting in approximately 2,200 deaths, according to Nsaibia.

West African journalists’ collective Wamaps reported that the latest clashes began on October 9 in the border region linking the three countries.

Analysts say both organisations are competing for influence over the same communities and recruitment pools. The conflict has spread beyond Mali and Burkina Faso into western Niger and northwestern Nigeria.

ISSP has expanded from its stronghold around Menaka in Mali into Niger’s Tahoua, Dosso and Maradi regions. This expansion has also helped facilitate links with Islamic State West Africa Province, which operates around the Lake Chad basin.

Different strategies fuel rivalry

Although both groups pursue extremist objectives, analysts say they differ in their approaches to gaining influence.

JNIM seeks to establish local connections, build alliances with communities and direct many attacks against government forces and foreign troops, while also committing abuses against civilians.

ISSP follows a more hardline, transnational approach and has targeted civilians who resist its authority, according to Sahel specialist Hasret Kargin.

The ideological and strategic differences have contributed to defections between the groups. UN experts reported that JNIM killed one of its commanders in July after he defected to Islamic State.

JNIM remains the leading threat

Despite ISSP’s claims of inflicting heavy losses, a UN expert report identifies JNIM as the leading extremist threat across the Sahel.

The report estimates that JNIM has between 7,000 and 8,000 fighters, compared with approximately 2,000 members of Islamic State’s Sahel branch.

Kargin said there were indications that JNIM had moved substantial reinforcements into the conflict zone from other areas. Given its larger numbers and wider regional presence, she anticipated further counterattacks in the coming days.

The escalating rivalry adds to the security challenges facing military-led governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which have struggled to contain the spread of extremist violence.